Abstract:
Provincial roads in Sri Lanka
considered as class C and D which serves
connection between urban and rural to ensure
the social and economic necessities. Even though
it is a developing country, the majority of these
roads are in poor condition, and safety concerns
are minimal. The lack of accurate accident data
and the lack of a road condition monitoring
program are frequently mentioned as factors.
This study proposes a methodology to
determine safety index to evaluate safety
performance in provincial roads in Sri Lanka.
Cumulative safety index is computed with the
fundamental elements such as exposure,
probability and consequences. Computed
Cumulative Safety Index is compared with the
available crash data. All severity levels are
translated to a single scale termed Equivalent
Property Damage Only (EPDO) to validate the
results. Once the actual EPDO is calculated,
multiple regression analysis tool is used to
determine the relationship between actual
EPDO and computed CSI composed of
identified safety issues in the road segments.
Actual EPDO and Estimated EPDO were
compared using Root Mean Square Error
(RMSE)
