Abstract:
Seed scarcity has become a significant challenge in Sri Lanka’s paddy sector,
particularly during peak cultivation periods, affecting timely planting, production
efficiency, and the economic stability of smallholder farmers. Limited access to
affordable, quality seed paddy often compels farmers to delay cultivation, shift to
alternative varieties, or reuse poor-quality seed, increasing production risks and
reducing income stability. This study examined the influence of seasonal farming
patterns and paddy variety preferences on seed scarcity and economic stability among
paddy farmers in the Ganewaththa Divisional Secretariat of Kurunegala District, Sri
Lanka. Based on Cobweb Theory, the study explored how farmers’ responses to
previous season price signals and delayed supply adjustments contribute to recurring
seed shortages and price instability. A quantitative cross-sectional research design was
adopted, and primary data were collected through a structured questionnaire
administered to 70 randomly selected paddy farmers cultivating 2 to 5 acres from a
population of 113 farmers. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, chi-square
tests, correlation analysis, and multiple regression analysis using SPSS and Microsoft
Excel. The findings revealed that all respondents cultivated paddy during both Maha
and Yala seasons, while 78.6% preferred hybrid varieties. High yield was the primary
factor influencing variety selection, followed by market price and crop duration. Seed
access difficulties were reported by 78.6% of respondents, mainly due to high seed
prices and poor seed quality. Significant relationships were identified between seed
access difficulties and income instability, and between delayed cultivation and
economic instability. The study concludes that seasonal farming behaviour, paddy
variety preferences, and price-responsive decision-making contribute significantly to
recurring seed scarcity and economic instability. The findings emphasise the need to
strengthen certified seed production, ensure timely seed distribution, improve market
forecasting, and enhance agricultural extension services to support sustainable paddy
cultivation and economic resilience.
