Abstract:
Increasing climate variability and extreme weather events impose significant challenges to the
crop production systems throughout the world. Alternative agricultural treatment systems have
been proposed to manage these challenges. However, these treatments have not been sufficiently
studied for their ability to improve climate resilience, especially in terms of profitability and risk
management, which are important metrics of resilience that determine farm-level adaptation.
Hence, we evaluated the climate resilience of three alternative agricultural treatments for a long term (27-years) rotation of corn-soybean-wheat, cast in the temperate humid climate of South west Michigan, United States. The three alternative treatments include no-till, reduced input, and
US Department of Agriculture (USDA) certified organic. These are compared to the conventional
treatment along with the same crop rotation. Means and volatility of expected gross margins and
risk preferences were used as the evaluation metrics. Results demonstrate that the net revenues
from the USDA certified organic are largely expected to exceed the net revenues of conventional
treatment. Also, for all commodities, organic treatment may exert greater annual stability in
revenues. The no-till treatment dominates conventional and reduced input practices in expected
annual net revenues with a relatively lower risk to those revenues in light of climate extremes.
Furthermore, the organic and no-till treatments showed appropriateness to cater to a range of
farmers with different risk preferences. Therefore, the organic and the no-till treatments were
deemed climate-resilient. The conventional and reduced input treatments did not show resilience
thus will be vulnerable to the changing climate. Despite the economic support for adopting
resilient practices, growers have been slow to adopt new approaches. We suggest future research
needs for understanding grower motivations for adopting climate-resilient practices and consider
policy implications.
