Abstract:
The Western Province, as the country's principal province, is confronting many
challenges prompted by climate change. The repercussions of climate-related
phenomena in the Western Province obstruct the overall advancement of Sri
Lanka. Consequently, it is imperative to comprehend future climate change
trajectories through climate projections. This study endeavors to discern
alterations in temperature and precipitation patterns in the Western Province from
2020 to 2100 based on varying Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and
5-8.5 and to propose suitable mitigation strategies. The research utilizes data
sourced from the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) and
various government and non-governmental organizations, including the
Department of Meteorology, employing descriptive analysis. The findings
suggest that the average temperature in the Western Province is anticipated to
increase by 1.20°C under SSP2-4.5 and 1.95°C under SSP5-8.5 from 2020 to
2100. Likewise, the annual rainfall is projected to rise by 175.48mm under SSP2
4.5 and 209.78mm under SSP5-8.5. Furthermore, the study indicates that a
decline in monthly rainfall coupled with an upsurge in temperature is foreseen in
the Western Province as it transitions from SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5 concerning
carbon emissions. Thus, it is preferable to maintain carbon emissions closer to
SSP2-4.5 rather than SSP5-8.5. Additionally, it is crucial to implement
development projects that take into account anticipated future changes in
temperature and rainfall.
