Abstract:
Climate change constitutes a formidable obstacle to pursuing sustainable
development across numerous nations. Sri Lanka is facing significant
challenges due to climate change. In response, individuals and organizations
are mobilizing efforts to address this pressing issue. This study centers on the
anticipated alterations in precipitation and temperature within the Southern
Province of Sri Lanka, utilizing models from the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This research employed
downscaled data from the grid, specifically representing the Southern
Province. Various models were leveraged to analyze this downscaled data,
further enabling the projection of future climate changes under diverse
scenarios and temporal frameworks. Validation was carried out by
juxtaposing model-simulated historical climate data with actual observed
records, a process that is essential for ensuring the study's data reliability.
Downscaled data were analyzed using the trend pattern for different models.
The multimodel ensembles revealed distinct patterns of temperature and
precipitation increase across different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
4.5 and 8.5 in the Southern Province from 2020 to 2100. Under the SSP2-4.5
scenario, the projected temperature is anticipated to rise by 1.18°C, with a
corresponding increase in rainfall of 122.76 mm. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the
temperature is projected to escalate by 1.91°C, along with a 148.47 mm rise in
precipitation. Although these projections are grounded in model simulations,
the actual consequences will be contingent upon future greenhouse gas
emissions. The Southern Province may witness significant changes in both
the intensity and duration of temperature and rainfall. Policymakers and
communities should integrate these climate projections into their
development and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies.
