Unveiling the resilience of smallholder farmers in Senegal amidst extreme climate conditions

Abstract

In Senegal, agriculture is an important sector underpinning the socioeconomic

fabric of the populace. Notably, the agricultural production in this region exhib- its heightened sensitivity to climatic perturbations, particularly droughts and

heat waves. This study aims to determine the resilience of different agronomic interventions for farmers practicing mixed farming that produce both crops (i.e., groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) and pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R.

Br.)) and raise animals in the Groundnut Basin in Senegal, which holds histori- cal and socioeconomic significance. To understand the current situation regard- ing demographics, economics, consumption behavior, and farm operations for

smallholder farmers, data were comprehensively collected from government and

nongovernment organizations (NGO) reports, scientific papers, organization da- tabases, and surveys. Additionally, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMula- tor (APSIM) was used to understand how combinations of three planting dates,

three plant densities, and six urea nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates affected the yield of pearl millet, which were used as the alternative scenarios to the baseline in the farm modeling and analyses. All the collected and generated data were used as

inputs into the Farm Simulation Model (FARMSIM) to generate economic, nutri- tional, and risk data associated with mixed farming systems. The generated data

were then used to determine the resilience of the alternative scenarios against

the baseline. Initially, a multi-objective optimization was employed to meet nu- tritional needs while maintaining a healthy diet at the lowest cost. Then, the sce- narios that met the population's nutritional requirements were evaluated based

on four economic indicators: net cash farm income (NCFI), ending cash reserves (EC), net present value (NPV), and internal rate of return (IRR). Lastly, those that passed the economic feasibility test were ranked based on risk criteria certainty equivalent (CE) and risk premium (RP). The analyses found N fertilizer rates of 0, 20, and 100kgNha−1 were generally economically not feasible. Additionally, medium (early-July to late-August) and late (late-July to mid-September) plant- ing dates generally performed better than early (early-June to late-July) planting

dates, while plant densities of 3.3 and 6.6 pL m−2 performed better than 1.1. The robust resilience approach introduced in this study is easily transferable to other regions.