Abstract:
Electricity has become vital for day today life.
Electricity consumption has enormously increased during the
recent past. However it cannot be conveniently stored. Therefore,
at every instant of time there should be a sufficient amount of
electricity generation to meet the consumer demand. Depending
on the demand, power producers adjust their production level.
Therefore forecasting electricity demand would be very helpful
to power system operators to maintain the power quality and
reliability of the power system. The highest daily electric power
demand occurs in night peak in Sri Lankan power system.
Therefore this paper describes forecasting the Daily Night Peak
Electric Power Demand (DNPEPD) of Sri Lankan power system
by using past daily data in time series analysis. Final model can
be used to forecast the DNPEPD a week ahead. It is shown that
the developed approach can produce more accurate results for
the forecast for short term. The developed model is more
beneficial for planning of a power generation pattern.
